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目的：探讨盆底肌力强度对产后压力性尿失禁发生的预测作用。方法：2013 年4 月至2014 年3 月，随机抽取200 例在本院产检和分娩的产妇，收集其临床资料，并在产后6 个月检测其盆底肌力强度，根据产妇是否有压力性尿失禁分为尿失禁组和非尿失禁组，运用双变量分析、分类和回归树等统计方法，建立一个产后压力性尿失禁的预测模型。结果：尿失禁组和非尿失禁组在慢性咳嗽、孕前已有尿失禁症状、孕期有新发尿失禁症状以及盆底肌力强度等4 项因素中有统计学差异（P＜0.05）；分类与回归树预测模型提示盆底肌力强度小于等于35.5 cmH2O、孕前已有尿失禁症状、新生儿出生体重大于2988 g及孕期有新发尿失禁症状对产后尿失禁有预测作用，其中盆底肌力强度的预测作用最显著。结论：根据预测模型筛选出产后压力性尿失禁的高危人群，及早对其进行干预，对减少产后压力性尿失禁的发生率有一定的临床意义，而预测模型的构建还需进一步的研究和验证。

英文摘要:

Objective:To evaluate the predictive role of pelvic floor muscle strength in postpartum period stress urinary incontinence.Methods:From April 2013 to March 2014, clinical data included pelvic floor muscle strength of 200 parturients who delivered in our hospital was analyzed. Predictors that reached significance in the bivariate analysis were entered into the classification and regression tree that identified interactions among them.Results:There was significant statistical difference between the two groups in comparing with chronic cough, prior SUI, newborn weight and new onset of SUI during pregnancy（P＞0.05）. Four predictors were identified, including PFM strength ≤ 35.5 cmH2O, prior SUI, newborn weigh ＞2988 g, and new onset of SUI during pregnancy. PFM strength was the strongest predictor.Conclusion:The forecasting model can screen out the high-risk population of postpartum stress urinary incontinence and provide early prevention. It makes sense of reducing postpartum stress urinary incontinence incidence. But to build a perfect model, further research is needed.

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