| 朱慧娟,谢先龙,肖庭怡,柯钰雅,吴艳霞.老年2型糖尿病患者微血管并发症发生风险的
列线图预测模型构建与评价[J].,2024,(22):4281-4284 |
| 老年2型糖尿病患者微血管并发症发生风险的
列线图预测模型构建与评价 |
| Construction and Evaluation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Risk of Microvascular Complications in Elderly Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-24 修订日期：2024-06-20 |
| DOI：10.13241/j.cnki.pmb.2024.22.023 |
| 中文关键词: 2型糖尿病 老年 微血管并发症 危险因素 预测价值 |
| 英文关键词: Type 2 diabetes mellitus Elderly Microvascular complications Influencing factors Predictive value |
| 基金项目:湖北省卫生健康委员会科研项目（WJ2018F038） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要 目的：探讨老年2型糖尿病（T2DM）患者微血管并发症（MC）发生的影响因素，构建并评价列线图预测模型的预测效能。方法：317例T2DM患者根据是否发生MC分为未发生组（n=221）和发生组（n=96）。采用多因素Logistic回归模型分析影响因素，基于影响因素构建列线图预测模型。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析预测价值。结果：年龄偏大、病程长、高空腹血糖（FPG）、高糖化血红蛋白（HbA1c）、低高密度脂蛋白胆固醇（HDL-C）、高低密度脂蛋白胆固醇（LDL-C）水平为老年T2DM患者发生MC的独立危险因素（P<0.05）。年龄、病程、FPG、HbA1c、HDL-C、LDL-C及列线图预测模型的曲线下面积（AUC）分别为0.799、0.769、0.649、0.704、0.678、0.705、0.950。结论：老年T2DM发生MC与年龄、病程、FPG、HbA1c、HDL-C、LDL-C密切相关。基于上述影响因素构建的列线图预测模型可以有效预测老年T2DM患者发生MC的风险。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| ABSTRACT Objective: To explore the influencing factors of microvascular complications (MC) in elderly type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients, and to construct and evaluate the predictive efficacy of the nomogram prediction model. Methods: 317 T2DM patients were divided into non-occurrence group (n=221) and occurrence group (n=96) according to whether MC occurred. The influencing factors was analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression models, a nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the influencing factors. The predictive value was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: Older age, longer course of disease, High fasting blood glucose (FPG), high glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels were independent risk factors for MC in elderly T2DM patients (P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of age, course of disease, FPG, HbA1c, HDL-C, LDL-C and nomogram prediction model were 0.799, 0.769, 0.649, 0.704, 0.678, 0.705 and 0.950 respectively. Conclusion: The MC occurs in elderly T2DM patients are closely relate to age, course of disease, FPG, HbA1c, HDL-C and LDL-C. The nomogram prediction model based on the above influencing factors can effectively predict the risk of MC in elderly T2DM patients. |
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