| 庄 静,徐 健,徐志祥,杨启帆,朱 昕,姚 俊.高危结直肠腺瘤的危险因素及风险预测模型的构建与验证[J].,2023,(22):4320-4324 |
| 高危结直肠腺瘤的危险因素及风险预测模型的构建与验证 |
| Construction and Validation of Risk Factors and Risk Prediction Models for High-Risk Colorectal Adenomas |
| 投稿时间：2023-05-01 修订日期：2023-05-24 |
| DOI：10.13241/j.cnki.pmb.2023.22.024 |
| 中文关键词: 结直肠高危腺瘤 危险因素 预测模型 构建 验证 |
| 英文关键词: High-risk colorectal adenomas Risk factors Prediction model Construction Verification |
| 基金项目:江苏省基础研究计划（自然科学基金）面上项目（BK20181225） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要 目的：探讨高危结直肠腺瘤的影响因素，构建风险预测模型并验证。方法：回顾性分析2021年1月至2021年12月期间在江苏大学附属人民医院进行诊疗的1408例结直肠腺瘤患者的资料，根据病理特征分为高危结直肠腺瘤组（759例）和非高危结直肠腺瘤组（649例）。采用Logistic回归分析筛选高危结直肠腺瘤的独立危险因素并建立风险预测模型，并验证预测模型的应用效能。结果：Logistic回归分析结果显示，病灶部位为直肠、高血压、高脂血症、年龄≥53岁、吸烟是高危结直肠腺瘤的独立危险因素（P＜0.05）。基于以上因素建立预测高危结直肠腺瘤风险的列线图模型，经Hosmer-Lemeshow检验和受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）分析显示，该风险预测模型具有较好的拟合度和预测效能，可以用于高危腺瘤的风险预测。结论：病灶部位为直肠、高血压、高脂血症、年龄≥53岁、吸烟是高危结直肠腺瘤的独立危险因素，临床医生可尽早对高危患者进行预防性干预以减缓高危腺瘤的发生。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| ABSTRACT Objective: Explore the influencing factors of high-risk colorectal adenomas, construct a risk prediction model, and validate it. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on the data of 1408 patients with colorectal adenoma who underwent diagnosis and treatment at the People's Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University from January 2021 to December 2021. They were divided into high-risk colorectal adenoma group (759 cases) and non high-risk colorectal adenoma group (649 cases) based on their pathological characteristics. Use logistic regression analysis to screen independent risk factors for high-risk colorectal adenomas and establish a risk prediction model, and verify the application effectiveness of the prediction model. Results: The results of Logistic regression analysis showed that the location of the lesion was the rectum, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, age≥53 years, and smoking were independent risk factors for high-risk colorectal adenomas(P<0.05). Based on the above factors, a column chart model was established to predict the risk of high-risk colorectal adenomas. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC) analysis showed that the risk prediction model had good fit and predictive performance, and could be used for risk prediction of high-risk adenomas. Conclusion: The location of the lesion is the rectum, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, age≥53 years, and smoking are independent risk factors for high-risk colorectal adenomas. Clinicians can provide early preventive intervention for high-risk patients to slow down the occurrence of high-risk adenomas. |
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