Objective To analyze the risk factors for concomitant coronary artery lesion (CAL) in children with Kawasaki disease, and to construct and evaluate a predictive model for concomitant CAL in children with Kawasaki disease. Methods 342 children with Kawasaki disease who were admitted to our hospital from January 2019 to May 2022 were selected, and they were divided into CAL group and non CAL group according to whether they have concomitant CAL. The clinical data of all children were collected. The influencing factors of children with Kawasaki disease concomitant CAL were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression, and a predictive model was constructed. The goodness of fit of the predictive model and the predictive value of Kawasaki disease concomitant CAL were tested by H-L test and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results The incidence of CAL in 342 children with Kawasaki disease was 16.67% (57/342). Univariate analysis showed that the duration of fever greater than or equal to 10d, delayed intravenous gamma globulin (IVIG) treatment, IVIG non-response ratio and monocyte %(MO%), eosinophil % (EO%), C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), procalcitonin (PCT), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), creatine kinase isoenzyme (CK-MB) levels in the CAL group were higher than those in the non-CAL group (all P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that duration of fever greater than or equal to 10d, delayed IVIG treatment, IVIG non response and increased MO%, CRP, ESR, PCT, cTnI were independent risk factors for children with Kawasaki disease concomitant CAL (all P<0.05). The predictive model of children with Kawasaki disease concomitant CAL by H-L test had a good fitting effect. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve(AUC) of children with Kawasaki disease concomitant CAL predicted by this model was 0.911 (95% CI: 0.876~0.939). Conclusion The duration of fever greater than or equal to 10d, delayed IVIG treatment, IVIG non response and MO%, CRP, ESR, PCT and cTnI are risk factors for the children with Kawasaki disease concomitant CAL. The predictive model of the children with Kawasaki disease concomitant CAL based on risk factors is of high value. |