| Objective: To explore the influencing factors of incontinence-associated dermatitis (IAD) in elderly acute severe pancreatitis (SAP) patients, and to construct a prediction model. Methods: 108 elderly SAP patients who were admitted in our hospital from April 2022 to January 2024 were selected. Patients were divided into occurrence group (n=26) and non-occurrence group (n=82) according to whether the patient was complicated with IAD. The influencing factors of IAD were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The predictive value of the prediction model based on multivariate logistic regression analysis for IAD in elderly SAP patients was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: Among 108 elderly SAP patients, 26 cases were complicated with IAD, and the incidence of IAD was 24.07% (26/108). The hemoglobin, serum albumin levels and Braden score in occurrence group were lower than those in non-occurrence group. The perineal skin assessment tool (PAT) score, age, the proportion of incontinence, the proportion of watery stools, hospital days, and the number of antibiotics used ≥3 were higher than those in non-occurrence group (P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that, serum albumin level decreased, Braden score decreased, PAT score increased, stool traits was watery stool, and number of antibiotics used ≥3 were risk factors for IAD in elderly SAP patients (P<0.05). The results of Homser-Lemeshow test showed that the prediction model based on multivariate Logistic regression analysis had good goodness of fit (χ2=3.102, P=0.192). In the prediction model the area under the curve (AUC) of serum albumin, Braden score, PAT score, stool traits, number of antibiotics used alone and in combination in the diagnosis of IAD in elderly SAP patients were 0.799, 0.753, 0.765, 0.667, 0.653, 0.917, respectively, and the combined diagnostic efficiency was the highest (Z=2.218, 3.309, 3.658, 4.305, 5.031, P<0.05). Conclusion: Elderly SAP patients have a higher risk of IAD, serum albumin level decreased, Braden score decreased, PAT score increased, stool traits is watery stool, and number of antibiotics used ≥ 3 are risk factors for IAD in elderly SAP patients, the prediction model based on the above risk factors has high value in the diagnosis of IAD in elderly SAP patients. |
