| [Objective] Investigate the epidemiological characteristics of patients with primary sputum smear positive tuberculosis in Xiangzhou District, Zhuhai city from 2019 to 2023, and construct a Logistic regression prediction model of influencing factors to provide reference for the formulation of tuberculosis control strategies in this area.[Methods] Descriptive research and logistics regression analysis were used to collect data through "China Disease Prevention and Control Information System", analyze patient characteristics and factors affecting the sputum turning Yin in the strengthening period, and build a LogP regression prediction model to analyze its prediction efficacy.[Results] 1005 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis were selected, and the rate of sputum conversion was 91%, and the gender composition ratio was 1.8:1. The proportion of patients aged 45-64 years, housework and unemployed occupation, inter-provincial mobility, tracking discovery, and the onset in summer accounted for the most. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gender was male, 45 to 64 years, and spring onset were risk factors for sputum conversion in the enhanced period. According to the corresponding regression prediction model, according to ROC analysis, the prediction model has a good prediction efficiency for sputum to Yin, and its ROC-AUC(0.95CI) is 0.728 (0.631~0.825), the prediction sensitivity is 82%, and the accuracy is 67%.[Conclusion] Zhuhai xiangzhou district should pay attention to male, green middle-aged, flow between provinces, housework and unemployed people, summer, especially tuberculosis group in June, male, green middle-aged, spring increased intensive sputum smear to Yin risk of failure, through the influence factors to build the prediction model of tuberculosis sputum to Yin have good prediction efficiency. Health publicity and education for key groups and periods should be strengthened, and targeted measures for tuberculosis epidemic prevention and control should be formulated to promote sputum bacteria and reduce the spread of diseases. |
