| 王 頔,马 磊,陈 宇,江一峰,耿 娜,祝延红.基于马尔科夫链的医疗决策[J].,2017,17(11):2185-2189 |
| 基于马尔科夫链的医疗决策 |
| A Medical Decision Making Study based on Markov Chain Model |
| 投稿时间：2016-05-10 修订日期：2016-05-31 |
| DOI：10.13241/j.cnki.pmb.2017.11.049 |
| 中文关键词: 马尔科夫链 医疗决策 队列法 蒙特卡洛模拟法 |
| 英文关键词: Markov Chain Medical decision making Cohort analysis Monte Carlo analysis |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目（71432007） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 647 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要：在临床实践中，医生和患者均面临决策，由于医生和患者个体知识经验的局限性，仅依赖个人经验的决策判断难以全面评估治疗方案的好坏，而通过马尔科夫链模型可以帮助医生和患者对复杂疾病建立抽象模型，便于对疾病的各治疗效果进行决策分析。马尔科夫链模型是处理离散事件的随机过程，通过当前设定的信息，预测将来的情况。本文总结了马尔科夫链在医疗决策中的应用的基本原理，梳理了在医疗决策领域常用的马尔科夫链模型的分类，针对医疗决策的特点探讨不同类型马尔科夫链的矩阵法、队列法以及蒙特卡洛模拟分析方法的适用范围和优缺点。针对疾病进展的三状态模型以及是否使用某药物的实际决策案例，分析比较队列法与蒙特卡洛模拟法的具体应用，总结归纳队列法与蒙特卡洛模拟法的优缺点。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| ABSTRACT: When facing the decision-making situation, both the doctors and patients always felt confused. Due to the limitation of the doctors' and the patients' individual knowledge and experiences, it was difficult to assess the shortcomings and benefits of all the al- ternatives of the treatment especially when the disease was complicated and had a long history. However, Markov chain model, which was often employed to represent stochastic processes, that is, random processes which evolve over time, could assist doctors to compute and analyze the outcomes of all the therapies by establishing a mathematical model. Through the set information which was in the history, the Markov chain model can predict the future procession. In medical decision-making process, Markov chain models were particularly suited to simulate chronic diseases' progression. In this article, we described the basic principles of Markov chain model in medical deci- sion-making, as well as the common types which were used in the decision making analysis on account of the characteristics of the pro- fession. On the various situations of medical decision making, different methods, like matrix method, cohort analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were applied. According to a certain practical case, this paper gave a comprehensive description of how to use Markov chain model in making the right medical decisions on which medical treatment to choose. By comparing cohort analysis and Monte Carlo simu- lation, the advantages and disadvantages of cohort analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were summarized on various dimensions. |
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